A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
