🔗 Share this article

Throughout the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán emerged as the exclusive European Union leader to back Donald Trump. This alignment was expected, in light of the Hungarian leader's adoption of contentious notions like great replacement ideology and the restrictions against press independence. Observers point out that Mr Orbán practically wrote the playbook for Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Political Favors In advance of the Hungarian Vote

Recently, with crucial Hungarian elections merely half a year off, Donald Trump reciprocated with support. With Orbán aims for a fifth term in office presiding over a country he labels an illiberal state, his political group is behind in surveys. A visit to the US capital produced more than Trump campaign souvenirs; it obtained far more significant electoral advantages.

Energy Exemptions and Economic Protections

Although previously instructing European states on the necessity to eliminate all resource supplies from Russia, and warning of sanctions against states still to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump approved to provide a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the largest EU consumer of Russian petroleum. Per the Hungarian leader, the American leadership also pledged to provide a “financial shield” to Budapest if it faces any future difficulties, particularly since EU institutions is still blocking substantial EU funds to Hungary because of rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this deal remain vague. However Mr Trump has shown his readiness to assist ideological allies as the US provided a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. Even though the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a presidential tour to Budapest, the Washington talks nonetheless was a successful endeavor.

European Apprehensions and International Implications

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention will have highlighted the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the opposition candidate, the rival candidate, holds a solid advantage in surveys. European leaders know not to expect steady principles from the Trump White House, and are familiar with the Trump's moves to diminish the bloc. Yet the waiver for Hungary – secured through an deal to acquire US gas and nuclear energy – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to phase out imports of Russian energy by the target date.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian petroleum, these two countries, have contributed well over £10bn to the Russian military campaign.
• Meanwhile, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the threat of its veto to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any upcoming peace talks, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

Péter Magyar has steered clear of vowing a significant change on the Ukraine conflict, and directed his efforts on domestic issues, while stressing the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a constructive EU member. After years of persistent provocations, Brussels can only hold out hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to core EU ideals, like the upholding of minority rights and the autonomy of civic groups, has remained a humiliating embarrassment for the EU. His continued obstructionism regarding the Ukraine issue could harm its long-term safety.