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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|