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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.