Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the almost four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Jennifer Jackson
Jennifer Jackson

A seasoned business analyst with over a decade of experience in tech and finance, passionate about data-driven insights and innovation.